Is Hawaii a Red or Blue State? A Deep Dive into Its Political Leanings

Table Of Contents

Introduction

Hawaii, the 50th state admitted to the Union in 1959, has a rich and complex political history that reflects its unique cultural tapestry and strategic significance. Understanding whether Hawaii is a "red" (Republican) or "blue" (Democratic) state requires an in-depth exploration of its voting patterns, demographic influences, and the outcomes of recent elections, including the 2024 presidential race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Hawaii’s Presidential Voting History (1960–2020)

Early Statehood and Democratic Emergence (1960s)

Hawaii gained statehood in 1959 and first voted in a U.S. presidential election in 1960. That initial contest was extraordinarily close: Democrat John F. Kennedy edged Republican Richard Nixon by just 115 votes (50.03% vs. 49.97%). This razor-thin margin remains one of the tightest in American presidential election history. Four years later, Hawaii swung decisively Democratic. In 1964, President Lyndon B. Johnson won 78.8% of Hawaii’s vote, defeating Barry Goldwater by a 57.5-point margin, the largest ever in the state. These early results reflected Hawaii’s emerging alignment with the Democratic Party, boosted by local labor unions and a diverse electorate that leaned liberal.

Voter enthusiasm was also extremely high in this era – over 93% of registered voters cast ballots in 1960 and 1964, signaling eager participation in the new state’s political life.

Early Statehood and Democratic Emergence


Landslide Republican Exceptions (1970s–1980s)

Since statehood, Hawaii has voted Democratic in almost every presidential race, with only two notable exceptions. The first was 1972, when Richard Nixon carried Hawaii amid a national landslide. Nixon won about 62.5% of Hawaii’s vote that year (vs. 37.5% for Democrat George McGovern) – one of only two times a Republican has won the state. The second exception was 1984, another landslide year nationally, when President Ronald Reagan won re-election and also carried Hawaii with 55.1% of the vote.

Aside from those two Republican victories, Democrats consistently won Hawaii’s electoral votes. Even in generally competitive elections, Hawaii leaned blue. For example, in 1968, Hubert Humphrey won nearly 60% in Hawaii despite losing nationally to Nixon, and in 1976, Jimmy Carter narrowly beat Gerald Ford in Hawaii (50.6% vs. 48.1%). Notably, in 1980, Hawaii stuck with Carter by a slim margin (44.8% to Ronald Reagan’s 42.9%) thanks to third-party candidate John Anderson drawing about 10.6% – even as Reagan won the presidency in a landslide.

These patterns show that Hawaii, while usually Democratic, could occasionally side with a Republican only during massive GOP wave elections.

Solid Democratic Trend (1990s–2000s)

By the 1990s, Hawaii’s reputation as a Democratic stronghold was firmly established. In 1988, for instance, Democrat Michael Dukakis carried Hawaii 54.3% to 44.8% even though he lost badly nationwide. During the 1992 three-way race, Bill Clinton won Hawaii with a plurality (48% to George H.W. Bush’s 37%), and independent Ross Perot grabbed an impressive 14.2% – the highest third-party vote share in Hawaii’s history. Clinton’s success grew in 1996, when he captured 56.9% of Hawaii’s vote, trouncing Bob Dole.

In the 2000s, this Democratic dominance continued. Al Gore won 55.8% of Hawaii’s vote in 2000, and despite the contentious national result that year, Hawaii was not close – Gore beat George W. Bush by 18 points. Even 2004, which was relatively competitive by Hawaii standards, saw John Kerry defeat incumbent President Bush 54.0% to 45.3% (a near 9-point margin).

One consequence of this one-sided trend was a gradual decline in voter turnout as political competition waned – by 2000, turnout in Hawaii’s general election had fallen to about 58% of registered voters, significantly lower than the 90%+ turnout of the 1960s.

Modern Era: Deep Blue Stronghold (2010s)

In the 2010s, Hawaii remained one of the most Democratic-voting states in the nation. Native-born son Barack Obama enjoyed overwhelming support – he won 71.9% of Hawaii’s vote in 2008 and 70.6% in 2012, making Hawaii one of his best states (second only to Washington D.C.).

Even as national politics grew more polarized, Hawaii stayed consistently blue. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Hawaii with 62.2% of the vote – beating Donald Trump by over 32 points. By this time, Democrats had won Hawaii in 15 of 17 presidential elections since statehood. Republican candidates have generally struggled to attract voters – for example, Trump received only 30% of the Hawaii vote in 2016.

Voter participation ticked back up in 2018–2020 after the state adopted all-mail voting. The 2020 election saw Hawaii back the Democratic ticket once again: Joe Biden won 63.7% to Trump’s 34.3%, roughly matching Clinton’s prior margin. Turnout in 2020 jumped to about 70% of registered voters – a record high in recent decades.

Modern Era: Deep Blue Stronghold (2010s)


The 2024 Presidential Election in Hawaii

Results and Vote Percentages

Hawaii once again voted decisively for the Democrat in 2024’s presidential election. According to the official statewide results, the Biden–Harris ticket (listed as Kamala Harris for President on Hawaii’s ballot) earned 313,044 votes, about 59.9% of the total. Republican former President Donald Trump received 193,661 votes (roughly 37.1% statewide). This translates to a Democratic victory margin of approximately 23 percentage points, affirming Hawaii’s solid blue tendency.

Hawaii’s 2024 outcome was slightly less Democratic than in 2020 (when Biden won ~63% to 34%), but the state still delivered one of the largest pro-Democratic margins in the nation.

Voter Turnout in 2024

Voter turnout in Hawaii’s 2024 general election was moderate, reflecting a dip from the 2020 peak but roughly in line with historical norms. About 522,000 ballots were cast statewide out of approximately 861,000 registered voters, yielding a turnout rate of 60.7%. This turnout percentage is lower than 2020’s 70% (which was an unusually high year), but higher than many other recent elections in Hawaii (for example, 58% in 2016).

Factors Influencing Hawaii’s 2024 Vote

Several factors explain why Hawaii voted the way it did in 2024. First and foremost is the state’s deep-rooted Democratic lean. Hawaii’s electorate has long been dominated by the Democratic Party due to the state’s history and demographics. Many voters are union members or from ethnic groups (Japanese, Filipino, Native Hawaiian, etc.) that traditionally favor Democrats on issues like labor rights, social programs, and civil rights.

Hawaii’s voting history since 1959 remains overwhelmingly Democratic, a pattern confirmed rather than broken by the 2024 results.